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The theory of probability and statistics can likewise be presented in terms of mind-numbing equations, and that s the way it s usually taught in school. This is probably why Nobel Prize winning research in behavioral economics has shown that even people trained in the eld consistently make mistakes when faced with day-to-day uncertainties.1,2 Steve Jobs, cofounder of Apple, said that personal computers are bicycles for the mind. Increasingly, through a process called simulation, they are being applied to problems involving uncertainty and risk, allowing us to bypass the equations of the traditional statistics course and to gain an experiential understanding of the subject. In the past few years, I have had the good fortune of collaborating with colleagues in academia and industry in advancing the development of such techniques and applying them in practice. I call our approach Probability Management, and it has been applied to problems as wide-ranging as assessing risks in retirement portfolios, investing in petroleum exploration projects, and designing incentive programs for bankers. It has been an exhilarating and sometimes exhausting ride, and it is far from over. The book has three sections. The rst, Foundations, provides a basis for visualizing risk and uncertainty using simple everyday props such as gameboard spinners and dice. It describes the sorts of consistent errors that occur when uncertain numbers are replaced by single average values: the Flaw of Averages. The second part, Applications, describes classic cases of the Flaw of Averages in the real world. The third part describes a potential path toward a cure for the Flaw of Averages: Probability Management.

aving worked with various organizations and data systems, over time I ve noticed a progression of reporting and analysis solutions. First queries are run directly against the online transactional processing (OLTP) database, but this approach conflicts with production use of the database and generally limits access to very few due to security concerns. Often the next step is to make a nightly copy of the OLTP database for the express purpose of running analytical queries. These attempts at using an OLTP database for online analytical processing (OLAP) are problematic on a number of fronts: OLTP data structures are optimized for single, atomic transactions, whereas OLAP queries summarize large volumes of data. Thus, queries are painfully slow. OLTP data may reflect limited history, whereas OLAP tends to be interested in historical trends. OLTP data structures are understood by a relatively small population of experts in the organization, whereas OLAP is most effective when exposed to the widest possible audience. A common refinement on querying the OLTP database is to create a new database that contains tables of summary data. When done carefully, this approach can address some speed and history issues, but it is still understood by a relatively small population. Consistent interpretation tends to be a problem as well, because summary tables are often created at different times for different purposes. These two concepts of consistent interpretation and availability to a wide audience are key strategies for successful OLAP in particular and Business Intelligence (BI) in general. An organization needs to have widely understood data on which to base its business decisions the only alternatives are rumor and intuition. This chapter describes the how to use Analysis Services as part of your BI solution, enabling data-based decision-making in your organization.

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If your mouse has Back and Forward buttons, you can also use them to navigate through the slide show.

Message Categories SELECTS MESSAGES If nothing else is specified, this is what you get: { default_syslog; default_debug; }; High-level configuration file processing. Low-level configuration file processing. A short log message is generated for every query the server receives. Messages such as Lame server on.... Statistics. Server shutdowns. If the server has to shut itself down due to an internal problem, it will log the problem both in the panic category and in the problem s native category. If you do not define the panic category, the following definition is used: category panic { default_syslog; default_stderr; };

8. Use the sketch to create a Through All cut in one direction. Notice that the Normal cut option is on by default. Examine the finished cut closely; notice that it is different from the default type of cut because it is not made in a direction normal to the sketch, but rather in a direction normal to the face of the part. Details of this are shown in Figure 29.44.

Professional sports photography requires super-fast, superlong telephoto lenses, making shooting pro sport events a very expensive pastime that is not for everyone. For example, the Sony 300mm f/2.8 lens costs more than $5,000.

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